China reported a 12.4% year-on-year increase in exports for March, significantly surpassing forecasts, as companies rushed to ship goods ahead of sweeping U.S. tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump.
The announcement from China’s General Administration of Customs on Monday revealed a sharp rise in overseas shipments—more than double the 4.6% growth predicted in a Bloomberg survey. The export boost comes amid intensifying trade tensions between Beijing and Washington, triggered by Trump’s aggressive tariff strategy known as “Liberation Day.”
In response to U.S. tariffs, which have climbed to 145% on some Chinese goods, Beijing has retaliated with 125% duties on American imports. Despite the tensions, the United States remained China’s largest export destination from January through March, accounting for $115.6 billion in trade. Notably, exports to the U.S. rose approximately 9% in March, even after a second round of tariffs took effect.
While exports surged, China’s imports declined by 4.3%—a marked improvement compared to the first two months of the year—suggesting signs of a rebound in domestic consumption.
Analysts believe the strong export data is largely due to “frontloading,” as companies accelerated shipments to avoid the looming tariffs. Zhiwei Zhang, President and Chief Economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, warned that this spike is unlikely to continue. “China’s exports will likely weaken in the coming months as U.S. tariffs skyrocket,” he said, citing high policy uncertainty.
Julian Evans-Pritchard of Capital Economics echoed the sentiment, noting that demand from U.S. importers remained steady in March but warned that exports could fall significantly in the near term. “It could be years before Chinese exports regain current levels,” he added.
The world’s second-largest economy remains under pressure from weak consumer demand and a persistent property sector debt crisis. Despite last year’s aggressive economic stimulus—including interest rate cuts, eased homebuying restrictions, and increased local government borrowing—investor optimism has faded amid unclear follow-through on promised measures.
China’s leadership has set a 5% GDP growth target for 2025, emphasizing a pivot toward domestic consumption as the main economic engine. However, Trump’s trade offensive presents a fresh obstacle to that goal.
