Ukraine is voicing concern that the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel may divert global focus from its own war against Russia and potentially bolster the Kremlin’s position.
Israel launched an extensive bombing campaign against Iran last week, prompting retaliatory strikes from Tehran using drones and missiles. Iran is a close ally of Russia, and the conflict has already caused oil prices to surge—a development that could significantly boost Russian war revenues.
“For Ukraine, the concern is rising oil prices. If they stay high, it benefits Russia economically,” a senior Ukrainian political source told AFP.
Despite the risks, Ukrainian officials have cautiously welcomed Israel’s offensive, noting that Iran has been a direct supplier of weapons used by Russia against Ukraine. The Israeli campaign has reportedly killed top Iranian military officials and weakened Tehran’s ability to continue arming Moscow.
“The Iranian regime is an ally of Russia. The more it suffers, the better for us,” the Ukrainian official said, adding, “Israel is doing the world a favor.”
However, Kyiv is wary of losing strategic focus and military aid from the United States, especially as President Donald Trump’s administration has shifted its priorities more toward the Middle East and Asia than Europe.
Washington’s Shifting Focus Worries Kyiv
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has acknowledged that the war between Israel and Iran poses risks for Ukraine, particularly regarding U.S. attention and support.
“No one is disputing the importance of the U.S.-Israel relationship,” Zelensky told reporters. “But we hope this doesn’t come at the cost of aid to Ukraine.”
Citing the Israel-Gaza conflict that followed Hamas’ October 7, 2023 attack, Zelensky said U.S. military assistance to Ukraine had already been slowed once due to rising tensions in the Middle East.
In an interview with American media earlier this month, Zelensky warned that crucial U.S. air defense weapons—up to “20,000 missiles”—might be redirected from Ukraine to the Middle East.
After the Gaza war began, Zelensky’s administration increased efforts to build Ukraine’s domestic arms industry, recognizing the need for self-reliance amid shifting international priorities.
Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in early 2022, Ukraine has faced thousands of missile and drone attacks—many involving Iranian-designed systems. Israel claims to have destroyed multiple Iranian weapons production facilities in recent days, potentially disrupting arms supplies intended for Russia.
“Let’s hope that this reduces Iran’s ability to provide weapons to Russia. That would help Ukraine,” Zelensky said.
UK Defence Officials: Iran Conflict Distracts From Ukraine
The UK’s Ministry of Defence echoed these concerns, stating that while Iran’s war with Israel may limit arms transfers to Russia, the broader impact could still benefit Moscow.
“Russia almost certainly sees the conflict as an advantage, as it shifts international attention away from Ukraine,” the ministry noted in a recent social media post.
Russia also manufactures its own drones and missiles and has received supplies from North Korea.
Despite Ukraine’s strategic gains from Iran’s setbacks, military analyst and blogger Sergiy Sternenko warned against celebrating too early.
“Don’t get too excited about the strikes on Iran,” Sternenko posted. “Yes, Iran is our enemy. But any escalation in the Middle East will drive up oil prices—and that helps fund Russia’s war.”
