Japan’s core inflation rate jumped to 3.5% in April, with rice prices nearly doubling—up 98% from the previous year—according to official figures released Friday. The surge has become a major issue for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s administration.
Main Cause: Shortages
Experts attribute the spike largely to a nationwide shortage of rice. Contributing factors include the record-breaking heatwave of 2023 that damaged crops, increased demand in 2024—partly due to earthquake panic-buying—and a tourism boom that intensified consumption. Reports also point to hoarding by some distributors.
Declining Farmland and Aging Farmers
Government policies aimed at curbing rice production, coupled with an aging farming population, have also exacerbated the problem. Nearly 90% of rice farms are run by individuals over 60, most without successors. Rice paddy land shrank to 2.3 million hectares in 2024, down from 3.4 million in 1961.
“The government has long focused on limiting production but not boosting consumption,” said Tadao Koike, owner of a long-standing rice retail business in Tokyo. “Now we’re paying the price.”
Stockpile Release Offers Little Relief
To ease shortages, the government began auctioning rice from emergency reserves in February. However, the impact has been limited. According to Masayuki Ogawa of Utsunomiya University, most of the released rice is used for blends—not the high-demand, region-specific varieties preferred by consumers.
Political Fallout
Inflation is putting pressure on households and the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which lost its majority last year. Farm Minister Taku Eto recently resigned after public outrage over a remark that he never bought rice because supporters donated it.
Despite the crisis, some signs of price stabilization have emerged. Marcel Thieliant of Capital Economics noted that weekly rice prices may soon begin to ease.
